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The Never- ending Battle: Meet Politicians Who Could Decide Ruto's Fate In 2022

If his political opponents move through with an impeachment resolution, Deputy President William Ruto will be in a difficult situation in the National Assembly. Although obtaining a two- thirds majority vote to initiate a Senate trial will be difficult, his fate may be decided by as few as five MPs.

The DP has the backing of 121 lawmakers, which is enough to derail any impeachment attempt at a time when his relationship with President Kenyatta is at its lowest point since they were first elected in 2013. While Jubilee Party vice- chairman David Murathe has publicly supported impeachment, proponents of the proposal will have to work harder to achieve.

The National Assembly begins the impeachment process, while the Senate conducts the trial and votes to remove either the President or his deputy from office. To impeach the DP, the National Assembly requires a two- thirds majority, which equates to 233 MPs. On the other hand, 117 lawmakers are enough to put a halt to such a proposal.

Tangatanga Camp Game Plan

With at least 121 MPs loyal to Tangatanga, the pro- impeachment team would need to entice at least five legislators to tip the balance in the House and set the Senate trial in motion. The assumption, however, is that the other members outside the Tangatanga axis also participate in the zero- sum game, with no abstentions.

Given the high stakes of such a motion, it is reasonable to expect the DP to go all out to win over more allies, other than the 121 who wrote letters to the registrar of parties in solidarity with the DP when he protested some Jubilee changes.

In the trial, 45 of the 67 senators must vote to send Dr Ruto home. He only needs the support of 22 senators to survive, and with 20 firmly behind him, it won' t be easy. While they work on the math, President Kenyatta' s team has chosen a much easier path: taming him within the ruling Jubilee Party.

The plot was launched last year with a purge of House leadership, with the goal of upsetting the balance of power in the National Executive Committee (NEC). The Majority Leader and Chief Whip are both members of the NEC. Other changes that Ruto objected to centred on the composition of the National Management Committee (NMC). He was unable to stop the changes.

President' s Allies

On Monday, the NMC, now headed by the President' s friends- recommended that the DP be removed as Jubilee Party deputy leader for sabotage, dereliction of duty, and promoting the United Democratic Alliance' s values (UDA). Following another NMC meeting, Jubilee Party officials stated that the NMC' s decision to remove DP Ruto as deputy party leader was a foregone conclusion, requiring only the Head of State to convene a senior party organ to approve it.

Party chairman Nelson Dzuya and outspoken vice- chairman David Murathe declared yesterday that the destiny of his estranged deputy' s term in the party' s leadership is in the hands of the Head of State.

" In October of last year, the NMC voted to remove Dr. Ruto from his position as Jubilee deputy party leader. That resolution remains in effect. When the NMC meets, we establish the agenda for the National Executive Council (NEC), which can either approve, review, or overturn the NMC' s decision. That is the one thing we are looking forward to " Yesterday, Mr Dzuya told the Nation.

" Ruto is the one who has thrown himself out of Jubilee. How can you get rid of someone who has withdrawn himself? It is self- evident. NMC completed its mission. We are only waiting for NEC ratification " Mr. Murathe stated.

With his friends kicked out of the NEC, the odds are stacked against him if the President calls the NEC to examine the suggestion. MPs Rigathi Gachagua (Mathira), Kimani Ichungwa (Kikuyu), and Alice Wahome (Kandara) have been the DP' s staunchest supporters in the National Assembly.

Moses Kuria, Patrick Munene, Muriuki Njagagu, Ndidi Nyoro, and John Kiarie are among the others. They have been present at every crisis conference convened by the DP to either issue orders or define the political destiny of the so- called Hustler Nation in the face of a relentless attack by the State.

Why Ruto Should Step Down for Raila

In general, a candidate concedes to the winner of a contest in which they competed as an opponent. However, there are times when a competent candidate abandons their bid for elected office in favor of a competitor. This is generally accomplished by an agreement amongst the main competitors, and it frequently involves monetary compensation for the one who relinquishes their goal.

There is no question that former Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Deputy President William Samoei Ruto are the main candidates for the 2022 elections. The question is whether Raila and Ruto should go head to head in the 2022 elections, putting the country in yet another bare- knuckle fight in which the ODM leader is more likely to be sworn in as the next president regardless of how Ruto performs.

Yes, Raila has guaranteed the people that the elections in 2022 will be free and fair. " I can guarantee you that the presidential election will be free and fair as Uhuru and are dedicated to freeing this nation to where our forebears want it, " he added.

That sounds comforting, but this is Kenya, where elections are decided by highly heated, tribalism- fueled emotionalism. While the Kikuyu have historically voted as a bloc for their sons, this will not be the case in 2022.

Ruto will very certainly have a big voting bloc, maybe even more than Raila.

To put it another way, Ruto has the votes of the common people, but Raila has the votes of the wealthy and powerful in the region and we all know that the latter always determine who is sworn in as President regardless of what occurs at the elections.

This creates an unusual scenario in which Ruto has such a strong showing in various areas of the Mount Kenya region as well as the Rift Valley that few of his passionate supporters feel he has lost or can lose to Raila.

Even if there is no violence after the elections, Ruto supporters will refuse to recognise a Raila triumph, which means we will continue to have a profoundly divided society, a scenario we are attempting to put behind us.

The option is for Ruto to clear the way for Raila by either not running or running in a " technical" presidential election, that is, without conducting a real campaign and instead posing as the opposition leader.

As a result, rather than putting the country through an extremely controversial election, Ruto will go to fight another day. Some may say that Raila should resign before of the elections in favor of Ruto or someone else, but there are numerous reasons why that argument is weak. First and foremost, Raila is a veteran of the opposition who has run for and won the president at least twice but was defeated both times.

We owe him the president not only because the election was manipulated, but also because he remains popular across the country. Then there' s the issue of age. When it comes to leadership, all communities in the country choose wazees. Raila, at 76 years old, still has it in terms of leadership and sharpness, with no indication of either diminishing even after being sworn in as president.

Ruto, on the other hand, is just 54, becoming 55 in December, which means that if he bails out and Raila has a clean path to the State House, he would have several chances to become president, unlike Raila. Under these conditions, Ruto abandoning his presidential bid for 2022 is the proper thing to do; just do it, Mr. Deputy President.

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DP David Murathe Jubilee Party National Assembly Senate


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