Kenyan elections are normally characterized by tribalism, high temperatures and at times wrangles and violence as top political leaders face off.
But Raila has promised that things will be different in 2022, saying that the presidential race will be free and fair, which will rule out claims of foul play.
But the analyst says that there is no guarantee that calm will prevail, foreseeing one side rejecting defeat; the camp led by Deputy President William Ruto.
He says that this is because judging by the latest happenings, it is clear that Raila will be sworn as next President even if Ruto performs better.
"Question is, should Raila and Ruto go head on in the 2022 elections and put the country in what is likely to be another bare-knuckle contest in which the ODM leader is more likely to be sworn as the next president, regardless of how Ruto performs?" he wonders in an article in The Star.
He is among top political observers who have been of the idea that the deep state determines who takes over in Kenya, however weak they are.
Omwenga, who has rubbed shoulders with some of the biggest political figures in Kenya, says that for now, Raila is the favourite of the rich and powerful cabal and will be sworn in no matter why happens.
He opines that it is finally payback time for the veteran politician after being rigged out at least twice by the very same cabal in favour of other aspirants.
He says that as a result, it is almost guaranteed that Ruto will refuse to accept the results as he believes that he will win and the best thing he can do for the sake of the country is to step down for Raila.
"Even assuming no violence following the elections, it will remain the case Ruto supporters will not accept a Raila victory, which means we will continue to have a very divided country, a situation we are trying to put behind," he further writes.
Raila is already seen as basking in the love of the Mt Kenya Foundation, which is the force behind former President Mwai Kibaki and President Uhuru Kenyatta's 2007, 2013 and 2017 wins.
Ruto had admitted that the deep state indeed dislikes him and might try to rig him out but has remained confidence of a win, saying that he has God and the people on his side.
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