Trans-Nzoia is a home to people of diverse ethnic groups from different parts of the country. Therefore, this makes politics and political outcomes diverse too.
However, the majority tribe is the Abaluhyia, followed closely by Kalenjin. The former mostly inhabit Kiminini, Saboti and Kwanza. Nontheless, they can be found living in the rest of the constituencies in the county.
In 2017, the county electorate voted for political leaders from various parties among them Jubilee, FORD-Kenya, Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and Amani National Congress (ANC). The governor, Patrick Khaemba was elected on FORD-Kenya ticket while senator and Women MP won on Jubilee tickets. MPs for Kiminini and Kwanza bagged their seats on FORD-Kenya tickets while Endebess and Cherangany emerged victorious by flying Jubilee flags. Saboti constituency only went to ODM's Caleb Amisi.
Nevertheless, majority of the Members of County Assembly (MCAs), 12, were elected on a Jubilee ticket. This is because they hail from wards where Kalenjins are the majority and they support the ruling party courtesy of its deputy party leader Dr William Ruto. FORD-Kenya has 8 elected MCAs and ANC has one. Three are independent whereas one belongs to ODM.
In 2022 general election, the incumbent president Uhuru Kenyatta will not be eligible to run because he will have completed his term. His deputy has announced interest in his seat.
A number of politicians from the county, particularly those who are eyeing top elective seats have started hinting that they could work with the DP in 2022. They include Kiminini lawmaker Dr Chris Wamalwa who wants to succeed governor Khaemba. The sitting governor has also declared support for Dr Ruto's presidency.
Since the most of those who voted for Jubilee candidates were Kalenjins, they will have to shift their allegiance to the DP and United Democratic Alliance (UDA). Even most of the Jubilee MCAs will decamp to UDA for their political survival. This will then make the County Assembly UDA and ODM affair.
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