Over the last two years, there has been a rise in political temperature across the country with politicians drumming up their support for various elective posts ahead of the 2022 general election.
The seat with the most competition is that of the president, which has attracted quite a number of aspirants so far.
Several analysis have come out on who is likely to take over the mantle from president Uhuru Kenyatta once his term ends in 2022.
Herman Manyora, who is a lecturer at the University of Nairobi has said that Uhuru Kenyatta's plans to shape his succession would come to a halt if the Deputy President William Ruto and the former Prime Minister and ODM party leader Raila Odinga join forces.
Raila Odinga is the ODM party leader, and has been leading the party for quite a long time now.
Sources close to the former Prime Minister have confirmed that the ODM party leader up to now, has not applied to be the flag bearer for the party, with the party preliminaries set to be conducted soon.
The ODM party's presidential aspirants had up to 31st March 2021 to submit their applications, but Raila Odinga's name is said to be missing from the list. This was also confirmed by ODM party secretary general Edwin Sifuna.
On the first of April this year, the ODM party National Election Board had said that Raila Odinga's name had been submitted.
A day after however, Edwin Sifuna came out to denounce the claims, saying that the statement was a mere prank set to fool Kenyans during the April first fools day.
What does this mean? Let me explain to you.
The general election in Kenya is set to be held on 8th August 2022 and and Raila Odinga has not submitted his name for nominations.
This can be interpreted that Raila Odinga will not run for the presidency in the next general election.
Top ODM party officials, including Mombasa governor Ali Haasan Joho and Kakamega governor Wycliff Oparanya are expected to battle for the ODM party's leadership ahead of 2022.
Governor Joho and Wycliff Oparanya have so far submitted their application papers to the NEB for nominations ahead of the 2022.
However, Raila Odinga may not support the two governors due to the respect he has for a handshake between him and President Uhuru Kenyatta. Raila Odinga is expected to operate within the boundaries of the handshake.
It should be remembered that Raila Odinga has never said that he will be on the ballot come 2022, and therefore, he may finally decide to settle on an agreeable candidate for both president Uhuru Kenyatta and him.
Among the candidates likely to receive UhuRaila's support is neither Governor Ali Hassan Joho nor Governor Wycliff Oparanya.
The former prime minister is likely to support a potential candidate from One Kenya Alliance, which comprises of four leaders who are; Musalia Mudavadi of ANC party, Moses Wetangula of Ford Kenya, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka of Wiper or KANU's Gideon Moi.
The analysis continues;
From the four candidates from the One Kenya Alliance, none of them stands to be a potential presidential candidate who can win the 2022 general election.
We have the Mount Kenya region which contributes majority of the votes in any presidential election, from the time President Mwai Kibaki was elected overwhelmingly in 2003.
This means that the ODM party leader Raila Odinga may be forced to support a candidate from the GEMA, which is a Mount Kenny region's community.
Raila Odinga will not run for presidency and so every Kenyan should prepare for a candidate Kikuyu candidate, or a candidate from the Mount Kenya region.
I can tell you for free that, a candidate from the GEMA community will have a guaranteed win and he will completely water down DP William Ruto's political game plan.
But the question remains; Do we have any potential presidential candidate so far from Mount Kenya who will be ready to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta?
The answer for me is NO!.
The Orange Democratic Movement is yet to announce their presidential candidate, and it stands to be Raila Odinga, who has been seen as an enigma in the Kenya's political atmosphere.
If Raila Odinga will decide to hand over the party's leadership, then it means that the party's leadership battle will be between Mombasa governor Ali Hassan Joho and his Kakamega counterpart governor Wycliffe Oparanya.
There has been a series of secret meetings between president Uhuru Kenyatta and top leaders, and few days ago, Kenyans were surprised to see President Uhuru Kenyatta together with Raila Odinga, doing inspection of the Nairobi Green Park Matatu Terminus.
The two leaders were seen so jovial together yet there have been reports of the two falling out, with allies of Raila exposing publicly that not all was well in the handshake.
Then the news of what could have transpired before the two leaders met came up.
It is alleged that the two top leaders have not been into terms, but their meetings came as a surprise to many Kenyans. There has also been rumors that the BBI is receiving a backlash in the parliament, and there may be no possibility for a referendum any time soon.
However, the ODM Treasurer Timothy Bosire, who operates from ODM party headquarters has broken his silence on the said meeting between President Uhuru and Raila Odinga and said what transpired from the two top leaders meeting.
According to Bosire, the Head of State and the former prime minister had a consultative and successful meeting and they are now in control of BBI agenda, both in the two parliamentary houses and to other Kenyans.
Bosire also assured Kenyans that the country is more important than any individual hence there is need for small issues affecting Kenyans, and that are dividing Kenyans to be sorted out.
"We are asking Kenyans that everything is under control and that Raila Odinga and President Uhuru are doing well.
They discussed BBI and other agendas. Small things should not make Handshake dead. All is well," Bosire said in an interview with a local radio station.
The meeting between the ODM party leader Raila Odinga and president Uhuru Kenyatta came few days after reports came out saying that the top officers in Uhuru's Kenyatta's government wanted to take over the agenda of the BBI and throw out the ODM party leader Raila Odinga out of the agenda.
President Uhuru Kenyatta decided to meet the ODM party leader at a time when Raila Odinga had also just held a meeting with top ODM officials and leadership and issued a statement, that they are on course with BBI and that Handshake was strong.
"There are some small boys in town who want to behave like they know everything about BBI. They want to edge Raila out.
I want to tell them that Raila is a big contributer to the report, " Junet Mohammed, one of the BBI secretariat members said in a press address.
The ODM party vocal leaders, including the Siaya county senator James Orengo and Rarienda Member of Participating Otiende Amollo had also wanted the Permanent Secretary for Internal Security and Cordination of national government, Karanja Kibicho removed from the BBI issues.
Now let us come to DP William Ruto, who is the second in command and the most likely candidate to succeed president Uhuru Kenyatta in 2022.
DP William Ruto has been a man who is receiving a massive support across the country from his hustler nation narrative. Many Kenyans have identified themselves with Dr. William Ruto and have married to his idea of supporting the low class in the society.
Last week, in an interview with Radio Citizen and a show named 'Bonga Na Jalas' DP William Ruto said that he had no problem with Raila Odinga and may work with him, if he is ready to unite Kenyans with him.
From the look of things, DP William Ruto enjoys massive support from both Mount Kenya and Rift Valley region, which are the two strong voting blocs in Kenya today.
If DP Williams Ruto will pick a running mate from Mount Kenya region, he will likely be supported by Uhuru Kenyatta and through the handshake, Raila Odinga will support William Ruto's presidency too.
From the analysis above; it can be seen that DP William Ruto is the most likely president Kenyans should expect come 2022.
Meanwhile, let me here your response to this. Share your thought on the comment section.
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