The most recent polls indicate that Raila Odinga is no longer trailing Deputy President William Ruto in popularity.
With 47.4% of the vote to Raila's 45.5 percent in Northern Kenya, Ruto has surpassed Raila to take the lead. The same could be said for Western Kenya, which has long been seen as Raila's stronghold. With 48.3 percent of the vote to Raila's 43.3 percent, Ruto was in the lead.
Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula are thought to have contributed to Ruto's recent rise in the area.
Ruto appeared to have caught up to Raila in the coastal region of the surveys conducted in Kenya's 12 regions, where he was ranked at 41 percent to Raila's 50.2 percent.
In Mt. Kenya East, Ruto continued to lead with 73.1 percent of the vote to Raila's 18.4 percent. In Mt. Kenya West, where Ruto won by a margin of 66.6 percent over Raila, Raila came in second with 24.8 percent.
Additionally, in the Mt. Kenya Diaspora regions, which also include Nakuru and Laikipia, Nyandarua Ruto defeated Raila by a margin of 61.5 percent. The two received a nearly constant percentage of 46% in the Maa-dominated regions, one of their key battlegrounds.
Ruto kept a commanding lead in Central Rift, his home district in the Rift Valley, with 81.6 percent of the vote to Raila's 12 percent.
With an advantage of 83.9 percent over Ruto's 10.8 percent in Central Nyanza, Raila will prevail. Raila will narrowly defeat Ruto in South Nyanza, which includes the counties of Kisii, Nyamira, and Migori, 49 percent to 44.5 percent.
With 38.1 percent of the vote to Raila's 53.7 percent in Nairobi, Ruto will perform better than him. Compared to Raila's 42.5 percent, Ruto has a 49.9 percent overall chance of winning the election. With 2.8 percent, George Wajackoyah could finish third, and David Mwaure, with 1.1 percent, could finish fourth.
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