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Why Belittling OKA could See Ruto and Raila Embarrassingly Lose in Their 2022 Presidential Bid

While many Kenyans have predicted a two horse race in the 2022 Presidential elections, there could also be new and shocking political developments that would kick out the "two horses" that is Raila Odinga and William. Raila will be making his forth attempt to win the race to state House while Ruto will be making his first attempt. Then there are OKA leaders who will be joining forces to try their luck in the heated race. This trial could however turn out to be a shocker.

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Deputy Ruto has for a long time written off the narrative of OKA being a threat to his presidential ambition. Raila on the other hand hasn't been willing to drop it for OKA leaders who are: Musalia Mudavadi, Moses Wetangula, Kalonzo Musayoka and Isaac Ruto. Kenya's politics has always focused on kingpin narratives, and in this case, OKA has four major political figures from three different communities. Even though it may be argued that their political influence has gone down, they still have major says in their regions, that could shape the outcome of the coming presidential election.

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Musalia Mudavadi is doubtlessly the main man in Luhya land. Initially, he was being rivalled by his now close ally Moses Wetangula, but they joined forced. This means there is probability of former Western Province being more United than the previous elections when the two were bitter rivals. Kalonzo Musyoka too should not be underrated, because of the experiences he's had in Kenyan politics. Kalonzo is well know for making last minute moves that eventually favour him. Kalonzo has too been on the ballot before and emerged third in the 2007 disputed presidential elections.

Gideon Moi, could be said to have a long way to go, but still, we can't underwrite the long influence of his party KANU and the influence the leader has in Rift Valley Region. Apparently, there's more to KANU than many Kenyans think. And personally, I think if there is a deep state then KANU must be part of it. The implication here is that if Deep State truly exists, then Gideon Moi could be a favourite to the State House.

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The power and experience of these four leaders, coupled with sharp leaders around them, should give Ruto and Raila a reason to worry. It won't be too easy for them and if they don't calculate their moves well, they could shockingly lose the 2022 presidential election.

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Isaac Ruto Kenya Moses Wetangula Musalia Mudavadi Raila Odinga


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