Few, if any, political players in Kenya's present political environment are better at reading and reacting to the current political mood than the master tactician Deputy President William Ruto. Unlike President President Uhuru Kenyatta, the Deputy President does not have a 100% Mount Kenya vote guarantee, as insinuated by the bitter supporters of Uhuru and Ruto. Therefore, for the first time in the country's politics, Mount Kenya vote appears to be up for grabs.
On the other hand, Western Kenya has never voted in a unified manner. This was tried in the 2013 and 2017 general elections. Kalonzo's turf Eastern Kenya appears to be more fractious than it has ever been, with Machakos governor Alfred Mutua, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu establishing a power trifecta. To put it another way, the entire country is up for grabs. It is a time for a careful balancing act.
Which part of the country would he choose as his running mate? Kenya's central region? So what would he offer his Western Kenya allies as a carrot? What about the North Eastern region? An enlarged executive can easily provide a one-treatment-fits-all solution to these problems. He will be able to dangle a variety of positions in exchange for loyalty and support.With his enormous funds and proven campaigning skills (2007, 2013, and 2017), he should have no trouble attracting support like a bulb does moths.
His clear alienation from the exact power he worked so hard to achieve in 2013 and keep in 2017, would cease to have any basis and would be unwittingly paused, if not completely stopped, giving him much-needed breathing space. But, more importantly, it lays out the quickest and safest path to his inauguration in 2022.
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