Raila has vied for the presidency seat 4 times without any luck. Will he succeed his 5th time? Clearly, that's a question only time will tell. His biggest political competitor, William Ruto with his UDA Party are winning supporters everywhere, something Raila needs to worry about.
Mt Kenya region seems to be accepting the man slowly as he receives several endorsements from the area political leaders. We won't be surprised if he registers votes from the area but what does that mean in the larger picture? To win the presidency seat one must lead in 25 counties.
Nyanza region has more than 8 counties and from the region Raila has been leading in the past elections. However, there are two counties that are likely to walk the other way. That's Nyamira and Kisii. In 2017, Uhuruto lead in Nyamira and came second with a small margin in Kisii county.
The two counties, though still in ODM umbrella may shift to UDA. Since Ruto and Raila started their micro-campaigns, Raila has never been in the area except for the Madaraka day celebrations. On the other had Ruto has conducted several campaigns in the area. I know campaigns might not be the best way of predicting election turn out but they are a key factor for one to have supporters or lose them.
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