According to political analyst Michael Ndonye, Deputy President William Ruto will have an easy time winning the presidency if current trends continue.
This is evident, according to the commentator, in how the UDA has been received across the country and how it is stealing allies from other top leaders.
Raila will lose to Ruto unless he can re-woo his former allies who have joined the OKA alliance, which is his only chance of winning.
He claims that if Raila and some OKA chiefs lost to Ruto and President Uhuru Kenyatta while united in 2013, it's absurd to believe they can do it again now that they're divided, especially since OKA has said it won't support Odinga again.
Raila's failure to bring on board Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi, and Moses Wetangula, according to Ndonye, will disperse the opposition vote, allowing Ruto, who has a consolidated vote, to defeat him.
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